Dollar: Caputo said that "nothing will change," but analysts are waiting to see how the market will open.

On Sunday night, minutes after President Javier Milei conceded defeat, Minister Luis Caputo took to social media to assert that "nothing will change economically. Not fiscally, not monetaryly, not in the exchange rate."

With this, the official seeks to convey calm in a market that, following Fuerza Patria's victory in Buenos Aires, with a lead of more than 10 points in favor of the provincial ruling party , expects greater exchange rate tension that will prolong what has already been seen in the " cryptodollar " market in recent hours, when it surpassed $1,400 and came somewhat close to the "ceiling" of the floating band imposed by the Government.

The consensus of analysts consulted by Clarín is that a gap of more than 10 points in favor of Peronism is "the worst-case scenario" among the market's bets. And while the rise in the dollar and country risk, which surpassed 900 points on Friday, in recent weeks had already discounted a certain "pessimism" among investors regarding these elections and their possible impact on the national elections in October, the penalty now could be much greater.

Economist Ricardo Delgado, from the consulting firm Analytica, noted: " Prices had a moderate defeat. Now, with a difference greater than 10%, financial variables, particularly in the local market and bonds in international markets, are going to respond," he said, adding: "What is required is very explicit communication of concrete measures from the economic team, not via Twitter, not via streaming channels , but through professional communication , where the Minister of Economy, the President of the Central Bank, the Secretary of Finance, provide certainty about some key events that will occur this week."

Delgado recalled that this week the Treasury must face a new "mega-maturity" of nearly $8 trillion . "The economic team will have to specify the conditions of the auction scheduled for Wednesday, what securities they will offer to try to achieve some kind of rollover of those maturities, and, of course, how to regulate the foreign exchange market, which will surely be challenged."

Analysts agree that the magnitude of the market's response will depend precisely on the government's reaction and the measures it takes to control the damage. But they question the sustainability of the plan that Luis Caputo's team had proposed to keep the exchange rate below the $1.470 ceiling before the elections.

Martín Polo, from Cohen, stated: "The exchange rate is going to be in demand. The Treasury will have to wait for it to settle. The dollar needs to reach its ceiling, and then the Central Bank will have to sell with the IMF's dollars. Last week alone, the Treasury sold US$500 million, leaving it with about US$1 billion left to try to sustain it. If this strategy continues, it will take forever until October."

In this regard, Polo added: " This Monday will be a real test for the exchange rate bands. The dollar will be in demand, and the Central Bank will have to evaluate whether to intervene."

Two other economists consulted by this newspaper, who preferred to remain off the record, agreed with this analysis. " The government has been running on fumes for days, without understanding what's happening. If they engage in self-criticism, I think the situation can be rectified . If the dollar reaches the top of the band and the Central Bank appears in the market, it could be a good sign, although if confidence isn't restored, it also seems like a short-term strategy," commented a top economic consultancy.

For Amilcar Collante, the market will demand "political signals and external support." "First, in politics, decisions will have to be made; there was some mismanagement surrounding the issue of bribes, and it will have to decide whether to go all out and cut heads on that front," he said, adding: "But some signals from abroad will also be needed because if the Central Bank starts selling dollars at the top of the band, everyone will start calculating how much they have left."

"If it continually loses dollars, the IMF will hold a meeting and will surely request a reset of the entire system ," Collante estimated.

Immediately after the results were announced, the stocks of Argentine companies plummeted in the overnight market , with YPF leading the way, losing more than 10%, and Grupo Financiero Galicia trailing behind, with a drop of almost 9% in its share price.

Stock and bond prices are also expected to reflect market distrust in light of these results . "A negative impact on the S&P Merval and dollar-denominated sovereign bonds tomorrow is expected," noted economist Gustavo Neffa, who also predicted pressure on the peso-denominated bond market. "Eight trillion bonds mature this week, and they will be at higher rates, which would have an even greater impact on the real economy . The government could further raise reserve requirements so that bonds can be used for bidding processes to contribute the reserves."